Nigeria News

The Equation Will Change Before 2023

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Nigeria News takes a look at the political permutation before 2023.

Those whothink that leadership will shift to the South in 2023 may be daydreaming.

It amuses me that scholars like Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and the Minister of Power, Works and Housing, Mr Babatunde Raji Fashola have also used this fallacy to campaign ahead of the recently concluded 2019 elections.

However, Iam happy that the national leader of the All Progressives Congress, APC,Asiwaju Bola Tinubu has been silent over this, despite that he is being criticizedto be interested in presidency come 2023.

He may haveambition, the political permutation may not favour him, going by theethnoreligious composition of the country.

Anotherproblem is the main opposition party, which will definitely throw up anortherner for presidential race in 2023, regardless of which ethnic group theruling party may want to present.

The APC maybreakup after Buhari’s tenure. The party members who listen to Tinubu now dothat because he has thrown all his weight behind Buhari’s second term.

And for thefact that their refusal to listen to Tinubu’s advice after 2015 victory later hauntedthem, the cabals had quickly kept low profile to allow the former governor ofLagos State to run the affairs now.

Tinubu iscalling the shot now. He is bent on putting his allies to lead the ninthassembly while the mafias in presidency watch with keen interest on where tostrike.

Of course,they know that Tinubu may be preparing ground for himself in 2023 or launchOsinbajo for presidency. The vice president remains the most loyal person toTinubu at present but his idea that it is the turn of the South in 2023 may hitthe rock before then.

Noconstitution of any of the political parties has laid emphasis on rotationalpresidency neither does the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeriadoes.

All that is happening now on the rotational presidency is a mere permutation by politicians and their political parties to gather friends from every zone in the country.

Which means, the APC may still elect a northerner as its presidential candidate in 2022.

President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki once posited that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) would re-present Atiku Abubakar in 2023 if the former vice president failed to win the 2019 poll.

Atiku lostthe poll of course and with all things being equal, he has the chance tocontest again in 2023, when he will be 76.

It will be a tough game for the APC if it presents a southerner against a PDP northern candidate in 2023. Believe me, the north will shift its political allegiance. The northerners have the belief that the only power they have is the political power, which must reside in the north.

The northerners know that economic power resides in the South. They will not want to lose political power when they do not have economic power.

Thisthinking will not make APC survive a month after Buhari’s government. The partywill fall like pack of cards. The northerners will flow with the party thatproduce a northern candidate come 2023.

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